Mar 18, 2010

Robust Estimation and Outliers

Estimation designed to be the "best" estimator for a particular estimating problem owe their attractive properties to the fact that their derivation has exploited special features of the process generating the data, features that are assumed known by the econometrician. Knowledge that the classic linear regression model assumptions hold, for example, allows derivation of the OLS estimator as one possessing several desirable properties. Unfortunately, because these best estimators have been designed to exploit these assumptions, violations of the assumptions affect them much more than they do other, sub-optimal estimators. Because the researchers are not in a position of knowing with certainty that the assumptions used to justify their choice of estimator are met, it is tempting to protect oneself against violations of these assumptions by using an estimator whose properties, while not quite "best", are not sensitive to violations of those assumptions. Such estimators are referred to as Robust Estimators.
In the presence of fat-tailed error distributions, although the OLS estimator is BLUE, it is markedly inferior to some nonlinear unbiased estimators. These nonlinear estimators, namely robust estimators, are preferred to the OLS estimator whenever there may be reason to believe that the error distribution is fat-tailed.

So the implications here are that, we should treat the Outliers more carefully than just simply kicking them out of the sample for the purpose of a better good-of-fit in running OLS. Often Influential Observations (outliers) are the most valuable observations in a dataset, outliers maybe reflecting some unusual fact that could lead to an improvement in the model's specification.

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